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April 2003
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Paperback books are the main format for books in China, representing 94.2% of unit books sales in 2002, down from 95.9% in 1998. School textbooks are exclusively in paperback format and account for half of unit sales in paperback format. With central government trying to reduce student study loads, the number of text books, and therefore paperback sales, fell during the review period. The decline amounted to some 9.5% between 1998 and 2002, offset slightly by a rise in consumer purchasing of other paperback books.
This report investigates the latest developments in the hardback, paperback, electronic, fiction and non-fiction sectors. With analysis of all the key trends, ranging from internet sales to emerging book formats, these studies measure retail sales, analyse key publisher performance and pinpoint growth opportunities.
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Executive Summary
The publishing industry is still under central planning and total state-owned in China. It is a monopoly industry. The number of publishers is strictly controlled by the General Administration of Press and Publishing, a department of the central government, and each publisher is assigned a certain number of titles according to their rank.
Units sales of books amounted to 7.1 billion in 2002, representing an fall of 7.9% over the review period. The main reason for the fall was a decline in textbook sales following a central government ruling to reduce student study loads during the review period.
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School textbook sales played an important role in terms of volume sales, accounting for 41.4% of total unit sales in 2002, down from 42.9% in 1998. In some economically underdeveloped areas, school textbooks accounted for as much as 80-90% of the total local volume sales.
Study helpers, books on marketing and management, investment, biographies and self-improvement all proved popular with Chinese consumers during the review period, especially copyright-imported titles. Meanwhile, foreign classic novels, books about soap operas, and books about corruption also performed well. The Harry Potter series claimed the four top selling slots in the children’s bestseller list in 2001.
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Value sales in 2002 reached RMB46.1 billion, up 31.6% on 1998. Growth was driven by a general increase in the price of books, an increase in sales of more expensive imported and copyright-imported books and growing consumer purchases of study helpers and other self-improvement books.
One of the stipulations for China’s entry into the WTO was that it had to open up its retail market by November 2002 and part of its wholesale distribution by November 2004. In 2002, the distribution of books was opened up to all publishers and book retailers in the form of public bidding. This ended the monopoly of educational publishers and the Xinhua Bookstore system, which is state-owned and was traditionally the main wholesaler and retailer in China.
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Bookstore consolidation is in process, following orders from the central government. The aim is that companies become more competitive in a more liberal free market setting and in the face of likely competition from international companies. Chained bookstores are becoming increasingly common, as are large book superstores.
Pirate copies of books are still a major problem. In 2001, over 18 million pirated books were seized. Meanwhile, imported-copyright books, which are mostly worldwide bestsellers, sold well.
The Chinese book and publishing market was estimated to have seen value growth of 12.6% in 2002, marking a recovery after relatively low growth during the review period. This growth is expected to improve during the forecast period and the value of the market is expected to reach RMB80.4 billion by 2007 (at constant 2002 prices).
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Table of Contents
1. MARKET OVERVIEW
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Main Findings
2. MARKET SIZE
2.1 Units and Value
Table 1 Total Book Sales 1998-2002
Table 2 Total Book Sales: % Growth 1998-2002
2.2 Units by Target Market
Table 3 Unit Book Sales by Target Market 1998-2002
Table 4 Unit Book Sales by Target Market: % Growth 1998-2002
2.3 Value by Target Market
Table 5 Value Book Sales by Target Market 1998-2002
Table 6 Value Book Sales by Target Market: % Growth 1998-2002
2.4 Units by Format
Table 7 Unit Book Sales by Format 1998-2002
Table 8 Unit Book Sales by Format: % Growth 1998-2002
2.5 Value by Format
Table 10 Value Book Sales by Format: % Growth 1998-2002
Table 9 Value Book Sales by Format 1998-2002
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2.6 Units by Category
Table 11 Unit Book Sales by Category 1998-2002
Table 12 Unit Book Sales by Category: % Growth 1998-2002
2.7 Value by Category
Table 13 Value Book Sales by Category 1998-2002
Table 14 Value Book Sales by Category: % Growth 1998-2002
2.8 Fiction Value by Subject
Table 15 Value Fiction Sales by Subject 1998/2002
Table 16 Value Fiction Sales by Subject: % Growth 1998/2002
2.9 Non-Fiction Value by Subject
Table 17 Value Non-Fiction Sales by Subject 1998/2002
Table 18 Value Non-Fiction Sales by Subject: % Growth 1998/2002
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3. MARKET BACKGROUND
3.1 Consumer Expenditure
Table 19 Consumer Expenditure on Reading Matter 1998-2002
3.2 Number of Public Libraries
Table 20 Number of Public Libraries 1998-2002
3.3 Retail Price Development
Table 21 Retail Price Development of Books 1990-2002
3.4 Retail Price Maintenance
3.5 Book Taxation
3.6 Copyright and Piracy
3.7 Translations
3.8 Buying and Reading Patterns
4. KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS
4.1 Emerging Book Formats
4.2 Emerging Distribution Channels
4.3 Technology Developments
5. THE PUBLISHING INDUSTRY
5.1 Publishers’ Total Sales
Table 22 Publishers’ Total Sales 1998-2002
5.2 Publishers’ Title Output
Table 23 Publishers’ Title Output 1998-2002
5.3 Title Output by Subject
Table 24 Publishers’ Title Output by Subject 2002
5.4 Publishers’ Domestic Sales
Table 25 Publishers’ Domestic Sales 1998-2002
5.5 Publishers’ Export Sales
Table 26 Publishers’ Export Sales 1998-2002
5.6 Major Export Markets
Table 27 Major Export Markets 2002
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5.7 Imports
Table 28 Book Imports 1998-2002
5.8 Major Sources of Imports
Table 29 Major Sources of Imports 2002
5.9 Number of Printing and Publishing Companies
Table 30 Total Number of Printing and Publishing Companies 1998-2002
5.10 Employment
Table 31 Total Employment in the Publishing Industry 1998-2002
5.11 Leading Publishers’ Turnover Rankings
Table 32 Leading Publishers Ranked by Turnover 2001/2002
5.12 Publishers’ Strategies
5.13 Mergers and Acquisitions
5.14 Top 20 Bestsellers
Summary 33 Top 20 Bestsellers 2001
5.15 Top 20 Children’s Bestsellers
Summary 33 Top 20 Children’s Bestsellers 2001
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6. DISTRIBUTION
6.1 Retail Supply Chain
6.2 Retail Distribution by Outlet Type
Table 33 Retail Distribution of Books by Outlet Type: % Analysis 1998/2002
6.3 Institutional Supply Chain
6.4 Institutional Distribution by Outlet Type
Table 34 Institutional Distribution of Books by Outlet Type: % Analysis 1998/2002
6.5 Number of Bookshops by Format
Table 35 Total Number of Bookshops by Format 1998-2002
Table 36 Total Number of Bookshops by Format % Growth 1998-2002
6.6 Book Clubs
Table 37 Total Number of Book Clubs and Book Club Membership 1998-2002
6.7 Mail Order
6.8 Internet Sales
6.9 Retailers’ Strategies
6.10 Institutional Suppliers’ Strategies
6.11 Mergers and Acquisitions
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7. MARKET FORECASTS
7.1 Trends to Watch
7.2 Units and Value
Table 38 Forecast Total Book Sales 2002-2007
Table 39 Forecast Total Book Sales % Growth 2002-2007
7.3 Units and Value by Target Market
Table 40 Forecast Unit Book Sales by Target Market 2002/2007
Table 41 Forecast Unit Book Sales by Target Market: % Growth 2002/2007
Table 42 Forecast Value Book Sales by Target Market 2002/2007
Table 43 Forecast Value Book Sales by Target Market: % Growth 2002/2007
7.4 Units and Value by Format
Table 44 Forecast Unit Book Sales by Format 2002/2007
Table 45 Forecast Unit Book Sales by Format: % Growth 2002/2007
Table 46 Forecast Value Book Sales by Format 2002/2007
Table 47 Forecast Value Book Sales by Format: % Growth 2002/2007
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7.5 Units and Value by Category
Table 48 Forecast Unit Sales by Category 2002/2007
Table 49 Forecast Unit Book Sales by Category: % Growth 2002/2007
Table 50 Forecast Value Book Sales by Category 2002/2007
Table 51 Forecast Value Book Sales by Category: % Growth 2002/2007
7.6 Retail Distribution by Outlet Type
Table 52 Forecast Retail Distribution of Books by Outlet Type: % Analysis 2002/2007
7.7 Institutional Distribution by Outlet Type
Table 53 Forecast Institutional Distribution of Books by Outlet Type: % Analysis 2002/2007
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