 
October 2003
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This report covers the Chinese market for commercial vehicles - trucks, buses, vans and minivans. It includes vehicles powered by petroleum, diesel and new forms of fuel, such as liquid petroleum gas (LPG), electricity and other fuels.
China's market for commercial vehicles is the largest in the world. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) estimates that out of the 3.25 million vehicles sold in China in 2002, well over two million were commercial vehicles such as trucks, buses and vans.
Surging auto sales have sparked a rash of new investments by foreign auto makers since the 2002, with the likes of Hyundai of South Korea and Japanese firms Nissan and Toyota announcing massive expansion programmes for their mainland operations.
China's auto manufacturing base is now forecast to soar, with vehicle production surpassing that of South Korea, France, Spain, and Canada by 2004 ¨C and going ahead of Germany to reach six million light vehicles by 2008. By 2015, China is expected to overtake Japan, putting it just 3-4 million units behind the US, which it could pass by 2020.
Commercial vehicles will contribute significantly to China's auto market. Foreign-invested joint ventures (JVs) and wholly owned foreign enterprises (WOFEs) now produce an increasing proportion of the commercial vehicles manufactured in China.
Yet the future is not all bright. While strong growth in the auto industry is forecast for at least the next five years, it is bound to suffer in the longer term as the big automakers reach full production capacity, pushing supply way past demand. This is likely to force a shake-down in the auto and autoparts sectors by 2010, leading to widespread industry consolidation amongst local auto firms and expensive cutbacks in operations by those major players which have over-expanded their mainland investments (just about every big auto maker in China). More moderate growth will then follow, underpinned by China's growing population of would-be auto owners.
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